Plans for 2018

Happy New Year to all Metropolis Blog readers.

We plan to bring all subscribers another 6000+ business leads on companies searching for offices, requesting tenders and agreeing office moves in 2018. Far greater, better informed and deeper coverage than any other provider. All leads include details of contacts, timescales and company intentions. Subscriptions for nearly every budget.

For subscription details email simon@metroinfo.co.uk

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Metropolis Office Movers in November 2017

Metropolis ran 640 business leads on ‘office movers’ in the month of November 2017. If all reported moves were added together the total would exceed 12 million sq ft of office searches and transactions, researched by Metropolis’ unique market led intelligence research team. London was the largest region with 288 leads during month, but there were also strong showings from the South East (64), North West (63) and Scotland (39). Business services, IT and financial services were the largest business sectors planning relocations or agreeing moves during the month.

The business leads covered the whole UK and provided details of the size of the office occupier, company likely move dates, a description of the reasons for the move, its business sector and full contact details including an address for written inquiries, at least one telephone number and in most cases an email address. Some of the largest planned moves and top picks amongst the 640 November leads, included those on Facebook, Channel 4, WeWork, Bupa and Lloyds.

The November 2017 leads included 214 ‘identified requirements’. Which means that the company confirmed to researchers that it has current or future plans to search for alternative office space. Of these 214 searches, 124 were new office searches, not previously notified to clients.

The most recent research also included 149 ‘potential movers’ which were mainly longer-term leads on occupiers, considering a relocation, but the occupier has yet to make a final decision on whether to search.

Most of the remaining stories covered companies that have just signed for new office space and have set a move date, including some large pre-lets and companies inviting tenders for fit-out contracts. The shortest planned move date is just over a month away, whilst the longest was late 2020.

Recent research by Metropolis concluded that a conservative estimate of ‘live’ business opportunities on the database in recent months exceeded £1bn of business.

If you would like some information on flexible Metropolis subscription packages, then please email Simon at simon@metroinfo.co.uk

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Cityoffices.net, the sister property leads service to Metropolis, has published its ‘Autumn 2017’ survey on the office construction market in central London, with details of new schemes starting, the dozens of schemes at preparation stage and 200 office schemes in the pipeline for construction starts in 2017-2020.

For more information on Cityoffices, email Andy at andy@metroinfo.co.uk

Central London Lettings and Pre-lets – October 2017

Central London office lettings in October 2017 reached a healthy 1.3m sq ft of deals from 60 mid-large size transactions (5,000 sq ft+) during the month. The October figure exceeds the current monthly average of just under 1m sq ft .

October was characterised by 14 office deals over 20,000 sq ft, which included Dentsu Aegis’ 310,000 sq ft pre-let at 1 Triton Square, NW1, Sidley & Austin’s 120,000 sq ft pre-let at 70 St Mary Axe, EC3; WeWork took 107,000 sq ft at One Poultry, EC3, and Red Bull took 37,000 sq ft at Seven Dials, WC2.

Media topped the table of lettings by sector, underpinned by the Dentsu Aegis deal. This was followed by professional services with the large deals involving Sidley Austin and Grant Thornton.  Business services also performed well, helped by the lettings to WeWork and Orega. Office deals ‘under offer’ in central London fell slightly to 3.5m sq ft and pending deal volumes are healthy in nearly all sub-markets.

By area, the City accounted for 32pc of the office floorspace let in October at 414,000 sq ft. The West End saw 553,000 sq ft of take-up, underpinned by Dentsu Aegis. Midtown contributed 147,000 sq ft of lettings. Current London office demand is calculated to be around 3.2m sq ft in the City and 2.9m sq ft in the West End.

The volume of grade A (newly built or refurbished office space) let during the month reached 718,000 sq ft (55% of the monthly total), as transactions for new space resumed their recent strong showing.

Metropolis research is currently monitoring 630 ‘live’ London requirements, with deals for space of up to 1.8m sq ft due to sign in the next few months.

Cityoffices and Metropolis  has produced its latest London Skyline report for Q4 2017. The report contains details of new office schemes under construction, demolitions underway and projections for future construction. Further details of planning applications and consents, with scheme by scheme detail are listed on the Cityoffices.net website. Details on the report and Cityoffices from Andy King at andy@metroinfo.co.uk

Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow Offices

A recent report from Savills on the Scottish office market, saw lettings reach 1.4m sq ft for the first half of 2017, 20% above the five year half year average.

Savills say that the Aberdeen office market has seen increased letting activity in recent months driven by the increased oil price. Take up during the first half of 2017 reached 238,000 sq ft, exceeding the 2016 full year level. 78% of take up was accounted for by the engineering, oil and utilities sector, up from 17% last year.  Nonetheless there remains ample supply of office space in the Aberdeen market, which has fallen just 3% from end 2016 to stand at 2 million sq ft. Office schemes at the Silver Fin building and Marischal Square are both expected to complete during the second half of 2017, providing 287,000 sq ft of additional speculative offices.

Edinburgh saw the strongest quarter of take up on record during the second quarter of 2017, according to Savills, pushing the half year total to 772,000 sq ft, which was 50% above the five year first half average.
Total city centre take up at half year reached 541,000 sq ft. This was largely driven by the GPU (Government Property Unit) signing a pre-let on 180,000 sq ft of space at New Waverley. Other large scale deals included Computershare signing a pre-let for 41,000 sq ft of space to be refurbished in Four North and Burness Paull regearing on 27,000 sq ft at 50 Lothian Road. Other deals in the out of town market included Standard Life signing for 31,000 sq ft at South Gyle Broadway. Grade A available office space remains scarce in Edinburgh, with only 313,000 sq ft of space remaining,

Glasgow saw office lettings reach 434,000 sq ft across the city centre and out of town markets during the first half of 2017, in line with the five year first half average. The largest deal was the Student Loans Company’s 41,000 sq ft letting of Europa House. Despite modest take up figures for the city centre market, the out of town market saw a number of engineering companies take space, which has accounted for 25% of the wider market take up this year.With a number of large deals under offer in the city centre, such as DWP, take up in Glasgow looks set to reach Savills forecast of 600,000 sq ft for the full year.

Metropolis has published 60 business leads on Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow occupiers with requirements, looking for office space over the last six months. It is also reporting on nearly 100 office tenants that are ‘potential movers’ as they approach decisions on whether to renew leases or relocate in 2018 and 2019.

Shorter Leases ? More Moves ?

New research from Estates Gazette suggests that office lease lengths are getting shorter and office relocations are becoming more frequent.

The research through EG Data shows that in five of the six big regional cities, average lease lengths, averaged for new and secondhand space, have fallen in the past 12 months compared with the previous 12 months.

OBI Property say: “For new larger requirements of more than 10,000 sq ft, particularly in newly built floorspace, I don’t see much evidence of a change in lease lengths – 10 years with a break at year five – but on the smaller requirements or in older stock, yes, leases are definitely getting shorter.”

EG data shows average Manchester lease lengths down to 6.8 years. Bristol average lease lengths are down from 8.1 to 7.1 years. Leeds leases are down to 5 years. Strutt & Parker/MSCI data suggests the UK average lease length for smaller office occupiers is 4.6 years, with 5.2 for larger occupiers.

Metropolis data suggests an average lease length of just over 6 years. Metropolis has noticed a growing trend of companies extending leases by 2-3 years while other options are assessed

In London, forthcoming lease expiries are set to rise from a relatively low 4.7m sq ft in 2017 to 6.7m sq ft in 2019:

London Lease Expiries (sq ft millions and number of leases due to expire)
2010 2.7 364
2011 3.8 513
2012 4.2 505
2013 5.1 521
2014 6.9 622
2015 6.1 708
2016 6 727
2017 4.3 709
2018 5.9 830
2019 6.7 893
2020 6.5 812

All occupiers with forthcoming leases are researched by Metropolis and clients are updated on tenant intentions.

Birmingham Upswing

A recent report by specialist Birmingham consultant KWB, reveals that the Birmingham city centre office market recovered in the first quarter of 2017 back to normal Q1 levels.

Office space transactions in the first quarter of 2017 totalling 139,000 sq ft – more than 30,000 sq ft over total transactions in each of the third and final quarters of 2016.  The largest deal of the quarter was by Arcadis’ signing for 22,953 sq ft at Cornerblock which is currently being refurbished, followed by iHub’s 18,378 sq ft new base in Colmore Gate. Recruitment specialist SThree Group was also the first tenant to sign 10,035 sq ft at the newly refurbished 10 Temple Street, on the 4th and 5th floors on a 10-year lease.

KWB say that the first quarter of 2017 was very much on a par with that of 2015. Looking ahead, KWB say that the rest of 2017 looks set fair, with the highest level of office development underway in Birmingham city centre for 15 years (1.4 million sq ft), a good supply of top quality Grade ‘A’ space is coming on stream and should trigger some significant office lettings in the coming months. Schemes include 55 Colmore Row
(160,000 sq ft), Corner Block (112,000 sq ft) and the Lewis Building (110,000 sq ft). The much reported HMRC requirement, which has shortlisted Three Snowhill, Arena Central and Post & Mail building, will see a letting of 200,000-300,000 sq ft and KWB also expect the HS2 halo effect to strengthen the Birmingham city centre office market.

Metropolis is currently tracking over 30 medium and large office requirements in Birmingham. Looking ahead, HS2 will have a major pull in 2017. The city has already seen Laing O’Rourke take 11,000 sq ft at 1 Victoria Square in 2016 and engineering firms and consultants are likely  to be a big sector going for office moves this year. In addition, there are nearly 40 tenants which are approaching decisions on lease or office consolidation plans over the next eighteen months.

 

Newcastle Office Market

A recent 2017 report by Knight Frank, revealed that Newcastle city centre take-up fell by 15% during 2016 reaching 220,000 sq ft.

Business Services accounted for the largest proportion of city centre take-up in 2016 at 22%. There was also a continued increase in activity in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) sector.

Out of town, total take-up reached 492,000 sq ft, with the North East has attracted an increasing number of ‘footloose’ occupiers in recent years.

Key transactions included a 35,000 sq ft letting to Convergys at The Rocket in the Stephenson Quarter. The most significant deal in the TMT sector was Zerolight’s new lease of the entire LiveWorks development on Newcastle Quayside (15,000 sq ft) only months after the building completed.

Metropolis is monitoring around 20 companies with identified or possible office searches in Newcastle.

Figures from local agent Naylors show 177,041 sq ft of out of town office space in Newcastle was let in Q1 of 2017. In contrast, only 33,461 sq ft of city centre office space was let in the same period. In Q1 2017, Frank Recruitment let 19,000 sq ft at the St Nicholas Building, while Sir Robert McAlpine is taking 8,000 sq ft in the same building.

Out of town, Quorum Business Park secured the largest letting with Sitel taking 47,000 sq ft. Other significant deals included Leeds Building Society moving their regional HQ from Silverlink to Cobalt Business Park and Parseq acquiring 20,000 sq ft at Camberwell House, Doxford Business Park.

The office market in Newcastle remains relatively quiet, with the majority of companies approaching lease events in 2017, choosing to renew current arrangements rather than search for alternative space. Future market growth is likely to mainly come from companies outside the region inward investing and expansions.