New Lease Research from Metropolis

The London office market has maintained steady office letting take-up during 2017. The latest figures calculated by Metropolis to the end of Q3 2017 reveal office transactions totaling 8.8m sq ft for the first nine months of the year (deals 5,000 sq ft and above). Based on these figures and a number of large office moves under offer, 12m sq ft take up by the end of the year is not out of the question. If 12m sq ft is achieved this would surpass the 11m sq ft of 2016 and match the total for 2015.

The table below breaks down take-up in London in 2017 by the five largest sectors

Sector                             % of take-up
Financial                          20%
Business Services           19%
IT/Computer                   15%
Professional                     12%
Media                                11%

Financial services leads the way, boosted by the large pre-let in the City to Deutsche Bank. Business services comes a close second helped by over 900,000 sq ft of lettings to serviced office operator WeWork. IT has been driven by large expansions by Expedia, Amazon and Spotify. By area, the City has taken around 40% of take-up, with West End, Midtown and Southbank broadly taking 15% each. Docklands has had  a very quiet 2017.

Metropolis has recorded 96 deals for London office space of 20,000 sq ft or more in so far 2017 amounting to 5m sq ft. Business services, underpinned by WeWork deals, takes over 1.2m sq ft of that, followed by 880,000 sq ft of financial sector driven by Deutsche Bank, 600,000 sq ft of IT industry deals and nearly 500,000 sq ft from professional companies (law firms, accountants, consultants). a further 2m sq ft of deals are ‘under offer’ and close to signing in Q4 2017.

Recently some office market analysts have advanced the view that the London office market for moves under 20,000 sq ft is ‘patchy’. So Metropolis went back to all the potential office occupiers contacted in 2016, approaching 2017 lease expiries, to trace what happened next.

Taking a sample from the 700 London-based occupiers contacted during 2016, Metropolis found that, despite the fact that many were simultaneously negotiating with the landlord of the existing office, over 70% of occupiers decided to move, prior to the upcoming lease expiry. The sector with the strongest propensity to move was media and the least likely to move was business services. The larger a company, the slightly higher propensity to move. West End companies were slightly more likely to move than City-based ones.

The last nine months has seen a strong pace of office space pre-lets set by incoming tenants in advance of construction completion. In total, some 4.3m sq ft of London office space, that is currently under construction, has been pre-let. Some of the high profile recent pre-lets included Boston Consulting, Metro Bank taking 67,000 sq ft of offices at 20 Old Bailey, EC4; Boston Consulting and Arup at 80 Charlotte Street, W1; HSBC taking 30,000 at Cork Street, W1 and Kings College at Roman Wall House, EC3.

The most common trigger for pre-let relocation is expansion. Nearly 50% of the space completed over the previous 6 months has now been let and includes big lettings to likes of Universal Music, Cancer Research, XTX Markets, British Council, Cleary Gottlieb, Schroders and Moneysupermarket.

Looking ahead, our research with thousands of London office tenants suggests a robust level of take-up in Q4 2017, although the increasing attractions of serviced office space and Brexit uncertainty could have an impact in the medium term.

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Opportunities in Serviced Offices

Colliers International has published a new report on the serviced or flexible workspace sector. Colliers outline how the workplace solutions providers have been hoovering up office space in London at a faster rate than any other sector apart from tech and media.

Flexible office providers have accounted for 18% of take-up across London during 2017 date. Central London is now home to over 7.8 million sq ft of flexible workspace from 4.5 million sq ft in 2009. This is a rise of 73% in eight years, although flexible workspace space currently only represents 4% of total London office stock.

2017 is set to deliver up to 15,000 desks by year end. Serviced office lettings appeared to have peaked at 1.4 million sq ft in 2015, however, 2017 is set to see that figure eclipsed with 1.2 million already let and a further 750,000 sq ft under offer.

WeWork has taken over 1.25 million sq ft of office space within the past 12 months. Blackstone and British Land have both begun in-house flexibile solution without leasing space to major providers like WeWork or Regus.

Paddington and City fringe, have seen increasing vacancy rates below 5,000 sq ft, and Victoria and parts of Midtown have seen void periods double in 2017. The City core has held up, but also seen activity from providers such as WeWork, Prospect Business Centres, i2, Regus and LEO.

Metropolis has researched nearly 20 specific requirements for medium/large London serviced offices in recent months. These new searches come on top of 25 recent transactions for space. Opportunities exist for agents recruiting occupiers for the large new flexible work centres, for fit-out contractors refurbishing usually previously vacant space, for furniture providers and removal firms handling the myriad moves to the new buildings.

Colliers say the need for short leases and flexible space, particularly since the Brexit vote, is driving demand for increasing volumes of flexible workspace space. Although, flexible workspace only represents 4% of London office stock, it looks set to become an important slice of the market, not just in London, but increasingly in regional cities too.

Central London Lettings – July 2017

Central London office lettings in July 2017 sustained a healthy 820,000 sq ft of deals from 48 mid-large size transactions (5,000 sq ft+) during the month. The July figure is close to the current monthly average of just under 1m sq ft .

July was characterised by 14 office deals over 20,000 sq ft, which included Spotify’s 104,000 sq ft deal at the Adelphi Building, WC2: law firm Withers pre-let 60,000 sq ft at 20 Old Bailey, EC4; Yahoo/AOL took 43,000 sq ft at Mid City Place, WC1 and HSBC pre-let 36,000 sq ft at 7 Cork Street in W1.

IT and tech services topped the table of lettings by sector, underpinned by the Spotify and Yahoo deals. This was followed by professional services with large deals involving Withers and Bazalgette Tunnel. Financial services also performed well, helped by the lettings to HSBC and Redington. Office deals ‘under offer’ in central London held steady at 3.4m sq ft and pending deal volumes are healthy in nearly all sub-markets.

By area, the City accounted for 31pc of the office floorspace let in July at 250,000 sq ft. The West End saw 177,000 sq ft of take-up. Midtown contributed 300,000 sq ft of lettings. Current London office demand is calculated to be around 3.2m sq ft in the City and 3m sq ft in the West End.

The volume of grade A (newly built or refurbished office space) let during the month reached 480,000 sq ft (58% of the monthly total), as transactions for new space resumed their recent strong showing.

Metropolis research is currently monitoring 600 London requirements, with deals for space of up to 3m sq ft due to sign in the next few months.

Cityoffices and Metropolis have just released releasing their twice yearly Skyline report on the London office construction market. The summer report features analysis of the 100 schemes under construction and the trends for the next wave of schemes. Details on Cityoffices from Andy King at andy@metroinfo.co.uk

Manchester’s Top Future Relocations

Lambert Smith Hampton has just released its Manchester office market report for Q2 2017. City centre office take-up for reached 284,497 sq ft across 68 transactions, a 23.3% increase on the same quarter in 2016. The cumulative 492,730 sq ft for the first half of 2017 is an increase of 14.6% on 2016.

The latest big relocations, movers and inward investments included: co-working giant We Work taking 55,802 sq ft offices at No.1 Spinningfields. Weightmans took 17,949 sq ft at the same building. EY is taking 40,000 sq ft at 2 St Peters Square; Car Finance 247 is relocating to 40,000 sq ft at Universal Building, Devonshire Street North; Distrelec is taking 17,000 sq ft at 2 St Peter’s Square, while Vodafone signed for 33,000 sq ft at Atlantic House.  Lookers acquired the 21,000 sq ft Aspect House in Altrincham,  21,200 sq ft was let at Regent Place, Salford to Convergys and Kaplan Financial also agreed a 10,000 sq ft move. Deals under 3,000 sq ft still accounted for 40% of take up

LSH secured the largest office deal this year outside of the city centre by acquiring 47,149 sq ft at 106 Dalton Avenue at Patrizia UK’s Birchwood Park, Warrington for Cavendish Nuclear. Business Services, consumer services and leisure and banking and finance have been the strongest sectors for take-up in the first half of the year. These three sectors accounted for 34%, 20% and 18% of take-up respectively

Metropolis is monitoring around 50 current office requirements in Manchester and around 60 ‘potential movers’, that is companies approaching lease expiries or with expansion plans, which have not decided whether to move yet.

Looking ahead, Manchester is expected to see faster office based employment growth over the next five years than Greater London and all of the major UK regional cities. Office based employment is
expected to grow by 6% over the next five years, significantly above the UK average of 3.5%.

Central London Lettings – June 2017

Central London office lettings in June 2017 bounced back just over 1.75m sq ft of deals from 108 mid-large size transactions (5,000 sq ft+) during the month.

The June figure represents a near tripling of the 600,000 sq ft sq ft of lettings in May. It brings the Q2 2017 central London lettings to a very respectable 3.1m sq ft and comfortably above the 2.4m sq ft in Q1.

June was characterised by 14 office deals over 20,000 sq ft, which included WeWork’s 283,000 sq ft pre-let of the under construction Southbank Place building, SE1: Framstore took 93,000 sq ft at 28 Chancery Lane, WC2; Industrial Light and Magic took 47,000 sq ft at Lacon House, Theobalds Road, WC1 and Hermes taking 46,000 sq ft at 150 Cheapside in EC2.

Business Services topped the table of lettings by sector, underpinned by WeWork deals, this was followed by media and financial services with large deals involving Industrial Light and Hermes. IT services also performed well, helped by the lettings to Misys and Reply. Office deals ‘under offer’ in central London held steady at 3.5m sq ft and volumes are healthy in nearly all sub-markets.

By area, the City accounted for 32pc of the office floorspace let in June at 566,000 sq ft. The West End saw 315,000 sq ft of take-up. Midtown contributed 400,000 sq ft of lettings, which was equalled by Southbank. Current London office demand is calculated to be around 3.3m sq ft in the City and 3m sq ft in the West End.

The volume of grade A (newly built or refurbished office space) let during the month reached 840,000 sq ft (48% of the monthly total), as transactions for new space resumed their recent strong showing.

Cityoffices and Metropolis are releasing its twice yearly Skyline report on the London office construction market. The summer report features analysis of the 100 schemes under construction and the trends for the next wave of schemes. Details on Cityoffices from Andy King at andy@metroinfo.co.uk

Birmingham Upswing

A recent report by specialist Birmingham consultant KWB, reveals that the Birmingham city centre office market recovered in the first quarter of 2017 back to normal Q1 levels.

Office space transactions in the first quarter of 2017 totalling 139,000 sq ft – more than 30,000 sq ft over total transactions in each of the third and final quarters of 2016.  The largest deal of the quarter was by Arcadis’ signing for 22,953 sq ft at Cornerblock which is currently being refurbished, followed by iHub’s 18,378 sq ft new base in Colmore Gate. Recruitment specialist SThree Group was also the first tenant to sign 10,035 sq ft at the newly refurbished 10 Temple Street, on the 4th and 5th floors on a 10-year lease.

KWB say that the first quarter of 2017 was very much on a par with that of 2015. Looking ahead, KWB say that the rest of 2017 looks set fair, with the highest level of office development underway in Birmingham city centre for 15 years (1.4 million sq ft), a good supply of top quality Grade ‘A’ space is coming on stream and should trigger some significant office lettings in the coming months. Schemes include 55 Colmore Row
(160,000 sq ft), Corner Block (112,000 sq ft) and the Lewis Building (110,000 sq ft). The much reported HMRC requirement, which has shortlisted Three Snowhill, Arena Central and Post & Mail building, will see a letting of 200,000-300,000 sq ft and KWB also expect the HS2 halo effect to strengthen the Birmingham city centre office market.

Metropolis is currently tracking over 30 medium and large office requirements in Birmingham. Looking ahead, HS2 will have a major pull in 2017. The city has already seen Laing O’Rourke take 11,000 sq ft at 1 Victoria Square in 2016 and engineering firms and consultants are likely  to be a big sector going for office moves this year. In addition, there are nearly 40 tenants which are approaching decisions on lease or office consolidation plans over the next eighteen months.

 

Corporate Fit-Out Winners 2012-2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

London Top 10’s

The Corporate Fit Out Winners 2012-2016

Metropolis Property Research has just released its latest report for the period 2012-2016 on the central London office fit-out market.

The report provides Top 10 Rankings for those firms involved in ‘CAT B’ projects for corporate occupiers taking new space for interior design, project management, fit-out ‘build’, and agents advising tenants.

 

The No 1 TOP 10 firms are:

No 1 Interior Architect  – TP Bennett

TP Bennett has been ranked as London’s No 1 interior architect with 4.7m sq ft of interior design projects for corporate occupiers taking new space 2012-2016.  This is 29% market share amongst the named TOP 10 firms.

 

No 1 Fit Out Contractor – ISG

ISG has been ranked as London’s No 1 fit out contractor with 5.0m sq ft of fit-out projects for corporate occupiers taking new space in 2012-2016.  This is 33% market share amongst the named TOP 10 firms.

 

No 1 Interior Project Manager – CBRE

CBRE has been ranked as London’s No 1 project manager on interior fit out projects with 3.5m sq ft of projects for corporate occupiers taking new space 2012-2016.  This is 24% market share amongst the named TOP 10 firms.

 

No 1 Tenants Agent – CBRE

CBRE has been ranked as London’s No 1 tenant agent with 6.2m sq ft of occupier deals done on new office space 2012-2016.  This is 30% market share amongst the named TOP 10 firms.

 

 

Editorial Notes

In the five-years covered by the research (2012-2016) a total of 57.3m sq ft of new office space has been let in central London. The report has looked at deals of 2,322 sq m (25,000 sq ft) and over – which are the focus of the analysis – and amount to 30.3m sq ft of office space fitted out in 433 projects.

The report ‘London Top 10’s – The Corporate Fit Out Winners 2012-2016’ is available from Metropolis Property Research.   For details please contact simon@metroinfo.co.uk

 

About Metropolis Property Research Ltd

Metropolis Property Research is an independent research and information company established in 1998.   The company carries out research into the London and UK office markets and corporate relocation leads.

Metropolis Website and Blog – http://www.metropolisleads.uk

 

Copyright Metropolis Property Research Ltd 2017